Thursday, 3 February 2022

Covid: What if the U.S. was like Canada?

In an opinion piece (National Post, January 10, 2022), controversial Canadian Jordan Peterson explained the inconveniences he’s had to suffer due to restrictions related to the responses of various governments to Covid. After a visit to Tennessee during which he enjoyed the openness of the Covid-related rules, he wondered why Canada couldn't open itself up like Tennessee or Florida.

I was curious, so I put together the following chart. Deaths per million gives us a common denominator for comparing different populations.


How to calculate deaths per million: Canada --> 34,212 (total deaths) / 38,267,245 (population) * 1,000,000 = 894 (deaths per million)

All the following have been rounded.

Canada currently has 34,212 deaths attributed to Covid.

Florida has 3.40 times the deaths of Canada: 3,039 / 894 = 3.40

If Canada had the same death rate as Florida: 34,212 x 3.4 = 116,298 deaths

Tennessee has 3.73 times the deaths of Canada: 3,335 / 894 = 3.73

If Canada had the same death rate as Tennessee: 34,212 x 3.73 = 127,625 deaths

The United States has 3.07 times the deaths of Canada: 2,747 / 894 = 3.07

If Canada had the same death rate as the U.S.: 34,212 x 3.07 = 105,106 deaths

It obviously follows that yes, Canada could have been like Florida or Tennessee or even the U.S. but at what cost in human lives? What is the trade-off? What benefit would there be for those human lives? How many Canadians would have to die before Mr. Peterson thought the crisis was more important than the inconveniences he suffers?


I got curious about asking the inverse question: What if Florida was like Canada?

Florida's rate of deaths is 3,039 - 894 = 2,145 --> 2,145 / 3,039 = 71% greater than Canada.

Excess deaths: 65,273 * 71% = 46,070

If Republican Governor Ron DeSantis had run his state of Florida like Canada, 46,070 Floridians would be alive today.

What if Tennessee was like Canada?

Tennessee's rate of deaths is 3,335 - 894 = 2,441 --> 2,441 / 3,335 = 73% greater than Canada.

Excess deaths: 22,776 * 73% = 16,671

If Republican Governor Bill Dee had run Tennessee like Canada, 16,671 Tennesseans would be alive today.

What if the United States was like Canada?

The American rate of deaths is 2,747 - 894 = 1,853 --> 1,853 / 2,747 = 67.45% greater than Canada.

Excess deaths: 917,600 * 67.45% = 618,920

If the United States had been run like Canada, 618,920 Americans would be alive today.

Those numbers are so big, it staggers my imagination. I've previously said that I think t**** should be held criminally negligent for his downplaying of the crisis. A significant portion of the population followed his lead and never took Covid seriously and never took preventative measures. If you think there's no danger, why bother protecting yourself?

But it's not just the population, it's also the leadership. Government at all levels, federal, state, country, and municipal have followed t****'s lead, responding too slowly or not at all, believing the crisis wasn't as bad as it was.

“The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.”
-Rush Limbaugh, Feb 24, 2020

Ron DeSantis has taken a shoot from the hip, full speed ahead damn the torpedoes approach to running Florida, even going so far as legislating that schools, businesses, etc. cannot put in preventative measures like mask mandates. No restrictions for Florida!

I have to shake my head. Nobody gives a sh*t. I'm alive; nothing else matters. It occurred to me that inadvertently or not, Ron DeSantis seems to be following this idea: The dead don't vote. By removing restrictions, getting the economy reopened, and ignoring all other factors like the number of people dying, he's betting on the people who remain, the people who are still alive, will reap the benefit of an economy and a style of life returning to normal. The dead can't vote but those who remain alive could see him as being responsible for getting things back to normal and vote for him. Cull the herd. Only the strong survive. Thoughts and prayers.

Note: I'm sure somebody's going to hold Biden, as the current president, responsible for whatever is wrong today, right at this minute. I would point out that t**** left him with a f*cking mess. It is clear that t**** deserves the blame, having prompted other Republicans like Ron DeSantis and Bill Dee to conduct their business with such a callous disregard for human life.

Think I'm being unfair? Headline from the New York Times, Feb 1/2022:
U.S. Has Far Higher Covid Death Rate Than Other Wealthy Countries
(The NY Times is behind a paywall. Click here for a reprint in the Indian Express.)

Every man for himself! I've never paid attention to t****. I would never pay attention to DeSantis or Dee. I follow the science, and thank my lucky stars I'm living in Canada, not the United States.


References

data source: WorldOMeter: Coronavirus

I will be the first to point out that this same comparison could be applied to Canada and any other nation. Places like Japan (151 deaths per million), South Korea (133 deaths per million), or New Zealand (11 deaths per million) have demonstrated a far better response to the pandemic than Canada. How many of my fellow Canadians have needlessly died?

You can find my other rants about the pandemic on the site map under the section Health.

2022-02-03

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